IGV Leads Semis; SNDK Buybacks Explain Most of the Pop
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Soft PPI, indexes push higher
On August 13 (U.S. Eastern), the three major indexes finished higher. The Nasdaq led and kept pressing toward records with limited overhead. About 319 SPX components rose and 183 fell; eight of eleven sectors advanced. Volume concentrated in financials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples — the last of those deserves a closer look today.
July PPI undershot: headline flat m/m (vs +0.2% expected; June was -0.3%) and +4.7% y/y from 5.5% (vs 4.9% expected); core +0.2% m/m (vs +0.3%) and +4.2% y/y from 4.7%, in line. PCE-linked pieces were mixed: portfolio-management prices jumped, air-transport PPI fell, and health-care subsectors split. Initial claims rose to 209k (vs 202k); continuing claims fell to 1.777M (vs 1.795M).
Soft producer prices support a September Fed hold. The labor print is still messy — do not read soft PPI as a confirmed cut path.
SNDK: the buyback ratio is the real bid
SNDK jumped about 13%. Two messages stacked.
First, return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. With no dividend, that means buybacks: $6B authorized in April, about $4.5B executed through July 3; after the August top-up, total authorization is about $15.5B. Against a ~$200–220B market cap (rounded), that is close to 7% of the float. The absolute dollars are not cosmic, but the ratio is heavy — roughly seven percentage points of today’s move can be attributed to that buyback expectation.
Second, FY2028–2030 targets (the fiscal year roughly begins July 2027): ~50% adjusted FCF margin, 15%–25%+ revenue growth, ~80% non-GAAP gross margin, and ~75% operating margin. High margins stay in the frame; production CapEx still gets funded, and cash profits are steered toward buybacks — a clean shareholder positive.
Technically, 1681 remains the break-and-hold line; clear it and 1824 is the next mid resistance before any serious retest of highs. MU’s stop-the-bleed line sits near 969, with after-hours already around 960 — only a few dollars away. Once trapped longs get relief, do not re-lever hard: Korean broker data showed about 62% of accounts in the 20–30 cohort blew up or owed the broker in this drawdown. Capital and stops come first.
NFLX: volume lift, still not a chase
NFLX reclaimed 78.2 on volume. The prior three weeks were light-volume chop without a clean stop-the-bleed pattern; today’s impulse is the first real push, helped by 13F institutional buying.
The structure is still a wide range. Clearing 78.2 raises the odds of more upside, but a sprint through 100 remains hard near term — overhead supply and structure are thick. A 10–20 point swing trade is a different problem.
Fundamentals are clearer: growth is fast into the Dec 2026 fiscal year, which is what lifts the five-year CAGR; growth slows into Dec 2027. Forward fair sits roughly 71–107 this year and an upper band near 115 next year — the ceiling is already around 100, so more upside quickly looks rich. Ads are the swing factor; models still show a slow near-term contribution while the business adjusts. Below 77, a one-year-plus hold can still work, with roll-downs to cut cost. There is no rush to initiate — if it is not cheap and not easy to trade, wait.
TSLA: range highs — chasing is a breakout bet
TSLA is pinned at the top of the lower box 315–368. A clean break of 368 turns that band into support; the symmetric ceiling above is 415–465.
Even with volume today, a swing/technical buy should not chase. Chasing is a bet that the breakout must stick. Win and you can see 415; lose and a slide from 330–340 toward 280 is hard to sit through. Buy trend and confirmation, not the impulse that 339 looks cheaper than 370.
WMT and XLP: staples wake as leverage re-arms
After institutional leverage was cut, the re-arming path shows up first in volume. XLP gapped and surged; a ~1% ETF day is already large. The 85.3 pivot cleared, with only mid-tier resistance left before prior highs.
WMT is a staples heavyweight. Yesterday rose about 2.43% on volume; today chopped lightly lower — a pause into the 200-day. Hard resistance sits at 117–121; a break completes the base and opens ~135. The blemish is valuation: spot is far above forward fair and outside the historical band. The re-rating story is e-commerce/online transition and a higher PE, but versus the old retail frame it is expensive. If price truly breaks, how rich it looks matters less than whether institutions keep buying. Holders below can wait for that test.
IGV over SOXX: if software clears first, semis should follow
SOXX finished up about 0.7% but sold off hard around 2:30 p.m.; IGV ripped in the same window. Both closed higher, but the afternoon was a clear seesaw — opposite of yesterday. Yesterday’s question of whether flows would re-long semis / short software is at least partly answered: with memory firm, software still outran semis.
IGV printed heavy volume and sits a hair from breakout; SOXX is near 550, about 30 points shy of 580. After this drawdown, the once-strongest semis complex is now the laggard — megacap tech has repaired, SPX is at highs, QQQ is pressing highs, software is close, and SOXX trails.
The read: if software breaks first, semis are unlikely to stay permanently suppressed — more likely a staggered follow-through. A persistent long-software / short-semi stance is high risk under current fundamentals. CapEx has not been cut; next year’s growth rate is unclear but the direction is still up. NVDA locked roughly $500B-scale revolving credit, cash is still pouring into the complex, and EPS growth is real. Shorting semis into the next ~half year still looks early. Soft SOXX looks temporary; if software clears, the healthier tape is broad participation rather than another top-heavy squeeze.
The risk is inside IGV: daily RSI top divergence is already obvious. It resolves with a decline, or a squeeze that then sells off hard. Even a break of 107 should expect a pullback — if Friday prints the break, do not sprint after the first tick.